This series, brought to you by Yahoo! Finance, looks at which upgrades and downgrades make sense, and which ones investors should act on. Today, our headlines feature downgrades for both Alcoa (NYSE: AA ) and Overstock.com (NASDAQ: OSTK ) . But the news isn't all bad, so before we get to those two, let's first check out why one analyst is...
Putting Chipotle on the menu
Markets are off a couple tenths of a percent in early Wednesday trading, but shareholders of at least one stock are still grinning: Chipotle (NYSE: CMG ) . The upscale burrito-meister is up 2.3% itself today on the back of an upgrade to "buy" from analysts at Argus Research. Citing expected same-store sales gains of 2.5% in 2013, Argus is taking its target price on Chipotle shares to $430. But is it right?
Unfortunately, probably not.
Priced in excess of 41 times earnings today, Chipotle is not quite as expensive as it looks. Free cash flow at the fast-casual restaurant chain is a beefy $324 million for the past 12 months, or 11% ahead of reported net income. Yet even so, this leaves the shares trading for 36 times free cash flow, or significantly more than you'd ordinarily want to pay for a company like Chipotle, which is expected to grow its profits at about 20% per year over the next five years.
Top 10 Cheap Stocks To Buy Right Now: Fiesta Restaurant Group Inc (FRGI)
Fiesta Restaurant Group, Inc. (Fiesta Restaurant Group), incorporated on April 27, 2011, owns, operates and franchises two fast-casual restaurant brands, Pollo Tropical and Taco Cabana. The Company's Pollo Tropical restaurants offer a range of tropical and Caribbean inspired food, while the Company's Taco Cabana restaurants offers a range of fresh, authentic Mexican food. As of December 30, 2012 , the Company owned and operated a total of 251 restaurants across four states, which included 91 Pollo Tropical and 160 Taco Cabana restaurants. The Company franchises its Pollo Tropical restaurants internationally. As of December 30, 2012 , the Company had 35 franchised Pollo Tropical restaurants located in Puerto Rico, Ecuador, Honduras, Trinidad, the Bahamas, Venezuela, Costa Rica, Panama and on several college campuses in Florida. As of December 30, 2012 , the Company had eight Taco Cabana franchised restaurants located in Georgia, New Mexico and Texas.
Pollo Tropical
The Company's Pollo Tropical restaurants offer tropical and Caribbean inspired menu items, featuring grilled chicken marinated in the Company's blend of tropical fruit juices and spices. The Company's diverse menu also includes a line of TropiChops (a casserole bowl of grilled chicken, roast pork or grilled vegetables served over white, brown or yellow rice and red or black beans and topped with a range of condiments and sauces), a range of chicken sandwiches, wraps, salads, roast pork, grilled ribs and wings offered with a range of salsas, sauces and Caribbean style made from scratch side dishes, including black beans and rice, Yucatan fries and sweet plantains, as well as menu items, such as french fries, corn and salads. The Company also offers Hispanic desserts, such as flan and tres leches, and at certain locations, the Company offers a range of sangria, wine and beer.
The Company's Pollo Tropical restaurants feature signature dining areas. In additiona, the Company's Pollo Tropical restaurants ! provide its guests the option of take-out, as well as the convenience of drive-thru windows. The Company's Pollo Tropical restaurants are open for lunch, dinner and late night orders seven days per week. As of December 30, 2012, its company-owned Pollo Tropical restaurants were freestanding buildings. The Company's typical free-standing Pollo Tropical restaurant ranges from 2,800 to 3,500 square feet and provide interior seating for approximately 70 guests. As of December 30, 2012 , the Company owned and operated a total of 91 Pollo Tropical restaurants, of which 89 were located in Florida and two were located in Georgia. The Company is franchising its Pollo Tropical restaurants internationally. As of December 30, 2012, the Company had 35 franchised Pollo Tropical restaurants located in Puerto Rico, Ecuador, Honduras, Trinidad, the Bahamas, Venezuela, Costa Rica, Panama and on college campuses in Florida. The Company also has agreements for the future development of franchised Pollo Tropical restaurants in Tobago, Aruba, Curacao, Bonaire, Guatemala and India.
Taco Cabana
The Company's Taco Cabana restaurants serve Mexican food, including flame-grilled beef and chicken fajitas served on sizzling iron skillets, quesadillas, hand-rolled flautas, enchiladas, burritos, tacos, fresh-made flour tortillas, a selection of made from scratch salsas and sauces, customizable salads served in a Cabana bowl, traditional Mexican and American breakfasts and other Mexican dishes. The Company's Taco Cabana restaurants also offer a range of beverage choices, including soft drinks, frozen margaritas and beer.
The Company's Taco Cabana restaurants feature interior dining areas, as well as semi-enclosed and outdoor patio areas. In addition, the Company's Taco Cabana restaurants provide its guests the option of take-out. The Company's freestanding Taco Cabana restaurants average approximately 3,500 square feet (exclusive of the exterior dining area) and provide seating for approximatel! y 80 gues! ts, with additional outside patio seating for approximately 50 guests. As of December 30, 2012, its company-owned Taco Cabana restaurants were freestanding buildings. As of December 30, 2012, the Company owned and operated 160 Taco Cabana restaurants, of which 156 are located in Texas and four in Oklahoma.
Advisors' Opinion:- [By GURUFOCUS]
Fiesta Restaurant Group (FRGI) was the Fund's best performing position in the fourth quarter and for all of 2013. Over the past year the stock g ained over 240 percent and added 212 basis points of return. The fast-food chain has con tinued to restructure after spinning off Burger King restaurants and is now successfully ach ieving organic growth. We continue to believe the stock is undervalued and expect further growth ahead.
- [By Seth Jayson]
Calling all cash flows
When you are trying to buy the market's best stocks, it's worth checking up on your companies' free cash flow once a quarter or so, to see whether it bears any relationship to the net income in the headlines. That's what we do with this series. Today, we're checking in on Fiesta Restaurant Group (Nasdaq: FRGI ) , whose recent revenue and earnings are plotted below. - [By Roberto Pedone]
Fiesta Restaurant Group (FRGI) owns, operates and franchises fast-casual restaurants under the Pollo Tropical and Taco Cabana brand names. This stock closed up 10.5% to $34.73 in Friday's trading session.
Friday's Volume: 552,000
Three-Month Average Volume: 220,525
Volume % Change: 140%From a technical perspective, FRGI ripped sharply higher here right off some near-term support at $30.89 and back above its 50-day moving average of $34.23 with strong upside volume. This move pushed shares of FRGI into breakout territory, since the stock took out some near-term overhead resistance at $33.14. Shares of FRGI are now starting to move within range of triggering another key breakout trade. That trade will hit if FRGI manages to take out some near-term overhead resistance at $35.73 with high volume.
Traders should now look for long-biased trades in FRGI as long as it's trending above its 50-day at $34.23 or above $33 and then once it sustains a move or close above $35.75 with volume that hits near or above 220,525 shares. If that breakout hits soon, then FRGI will set up to re-test or possibly take out its all-time high at $38.84. Any high-volume move above that level will then give FRGI a chance to trend north of $40.
Top 5 Restaurant Companies To Buy Right Now: Einstein Noah Restaurant Group Inc (BAGL)
Einstein Noah Restaurant Group, Inc. (ENRGI), incorporated on October 21, 1992, is an owner/operator, franchisor and licensor of bagel specialty restaurants in the United States. ENRGI operates under the Einstein Bros. Bagels (Einstein Bros.), Noah�� New York Bagels (Noah��) and Manhattan Bagel Company (Manhattan Bagel) brands. ENRGI operates in three business segments: the Company-owned restaurants segment, the manufacturing and commissary segment, and the franchise and license segment. The Company-owned restaurants segment includes the restaurants that it owns. The manufacturing and commissary segment produces and distributes bagel dough and other products to its Company-owned restaurants, licensees and franchisees and other third parties. The franchise and license segment earns royalties and other fees from the use of trademarks and operating systems developed for the Einstein Bros., Noah�� and Manhattan Bagel brands.
During the fiscal year ended January 1, 2013 (fiscal 2012), ENRGI acquired eight restaurants and opened an additional 15 Company-owned restaurants. It closed one Company-owned restaurant during fiscal 2012. On January 31, 2012, the Company sold a Company-owned restaurant. As of January 1, 2013, it had 816 restaurants in 39 states and in the District of Columbia. In January 2013, the Company opened an Einstein Bros. franchise in Montana. Its product offerings include fresh-baked bagels and other bakery items baked onsite, ma de-to-order breakfast and lunch sandwiches on a range of bagels, breads or wraps, gourmet soups and salads, assorted pastries, premium coffees and an assortment of snacks. Its manufacturing and independent distribution network delivers ingredients that are delivered fresh to its restaurants.
Company-owned restaurants
Einstein Bros. offers a menu that provides food for breakfast and lunch, including fresh-baked bagels and hot breakfast sandwiches, freshly prepared lunch sandwiches, cream cheese and other spreads, specia! lty coffees and teas, soups, salads and other menu offerings. Noah�� is a neighborhood-based bakery/deli restaurant that serves fresh-baked bagels, hot breakfast sandwiches, made-to-order deli-style sandwiches, cream cheese and other spreads, specialty coffees and teas, soups, salads and other menu offerings. Manhattan Bagel provides a traditional New York style boil and baked bagel. Manhattan Bagel also serves a range of grilled sandwiches, freshly made deli sandwiches, freshly prepared breakfast sandwiches, soups, and a range of other fresh-baked sweets. Similar to Einstein Bros. and Noah��, Manhattan Bagel also features a line of fresh brewed coffees and specialty coffee/espresso beverages. During fiscal 2012, ENRGI generated approximately 90% of its total revenue from restaurant sales at its Company-owned restaurants.
Manufacturing and Commissaries
ENRGI operates a bagel dough manufacturing facility in Whittier, California and has contracts with two suppliers to produce bagel dough and sweets to the specifications. These facilities provide frozen dough, partially-baked frozen bagels and fully baked sweets for its Company-owned restaurants, franchisees and licensees. These operations provide the restaurants with food products, such as sliced meats, cheeses, and/or certain salad ingredients. It has recipes and production processes for the bagel dough, cream cheese and coffee. Frozen, or partially baked and frozen, bagel dough is shipped to all of its Company-owned, franchised and licensed restaurants where the dough is then baked onsite. Its purchases other ingredients used in the restaurants, such as meat, lettuce, tomatoes and condiments, from a select group of third party suppliers.
Franchise and Licensing
ENRGI offers Einstein Bros. franchises to qualified area developers. As of January 1, 2013, the Company was registered to offer Einstein Bros. franchises in 49 states and the District of Columbia. It also has a franchise base in the Manhatt! an Bagel ! brand. Its licensees are located primarily in colleges and universities, hospitals, airports and military bases. As of February 25, 2013, it had 28 development agreements in place for 136 total restaurants, 34 of which have already opened. During fiscal 2012, it opened 13 franchised locations and 27 licensed locations. During fiscal 2012, approximately 3% of its total revenue was generated by the Company�� franchise and license operations.
Advisors' Opinion:- [By MARKETWATCH]
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Wall Street hedge-fund investor David Einhorn was active in the last quarter of 2013, taking new stakes in technology and energy companies, while trimming existing holdings in insurer Aetna (AET) , NCR Corp (NCR) and WPX Energy (WPX) , according to an SEC filing Friday. Einhorn's Greenlight Capital picked up stakes in Anadarko Petroleum (APC) , BP (BP) , McDermott Intl. (MDR) , Micron Technolgy (MU) and Take-Two Interactive (TTWO) , according to the latest 13F filing. He trimmed stakes in Aetna, Einstein Noah (BAGL) and WPX Energy, according to the filing.
- [By Peter Graham]
The Q1 2014 Potbelly Corp (NASDAQ: PBPB) earnings report is scheduled for after the market closes on Tuesday, May 6th, with investors and traders alike who follow either the sandwich restaurant chain stock (which debuted last October and is down some 44% for retail investors)�or who are into potential small cap peers like Cosi Inc (NASDAQ: COSI), Einstein Noah Restaurant Group, Inc (NASDAQ: BAGL) and Panera Bread Co (NASDAQ: PNRA) should be paying attention. Aside from the Potbelly Corp earnings report, it should be said that the Q1 2014 Panera Bread Co earnings report was last Tuesday while the�Q1 2014 Einstein Noah Restaurant Group, Inc earnings report came last Thursday and the the Q1 2014 Cosi Inc�earnings report is likely scheduled for Monday, May 12. However, Potbelly Corp has attracted a bit of attention for its potential growth trajectory as well as its�vision to be the ��eighborhood Sandwich Shop.��/p>
Top 5 Restaurant Companies To Buy Right Now: Ignite Restaurant Group Inc (IRG)
Ignite Restaurant Group, Inc., incorporated on February 4, 2002, operates two restaurant brands, Joe's Crab Shack (Joe's) and Brick House Tavern + Tap (Brick House). The Company�� Joe's Crab Shack and Brick House Tavern + Tap operate in a diverse set of markets across the United States. Joe's Crab Shack is a national chain of casual seafood restaurants serving a variety of seafood items, with an emphasis on crab. Brick House Tavern + Tap is a casual restaurant brand that provides guests a gastro pub experience by offering a blend of menu items. As of December 31, 2012, the Company owned and operated 144 restaurants in 33 states. In September 2013, Ignite Restaurant Group Inc announced the opening of its newest Joe's Crab Shack restaurant, located in Newark, New Jersey.
Joe's Crab Shack
The Company�� Joe's Crab Shack offers an outdoor patio for guests to enjoy eating and drinking and a children's playground. Joe's also has many locations that are located on waterfront property. Interior design elements include a nautical, vacation theme to invoke memories of beach vacations and a genuine crab shack experience. Joe's Crab Shack restaurants have over 200 seats. Many of the Company�� restaurants also include a small gift shop where guests can purchase souvenirs to commemorate their dining experience. Joe's Crab Shack also leverages its crab-forward menu with other crab items, including Made-From-Scratch Crab Cakes, Crab Nachos and Crazy-Good Crab Dip. In addition to its core crab-focused menu, Joe's also offers a range of entrees featuring a variety of seafood, including the Get Stuffed Snapper, Surf 'N Turf Burger and The Big Hook Up, as well as a range of traditional seafood entrees like the Fisherman's Platter. Joe's also offers several out of water options, such as Pan Fried Cheesy Chicken and Whiskey Smoked Ribs. In addition, alcoholic beverages include the Shark Bite, Category 5 Hurricane and Mason Jar cocktails emerging as guests' top choices. Joe's menu inc! ludes more than 29 items made with either Queen, Snow, Dungeness or King Crabs sourced from government regulated and sustainable fisheries. Its menu offers 14 appetizers, including Made-From-Scratch Crab Cakes, Crab Nachos and Crazy-Good Crab Dip, and over 50 entrees, including Steampots, Crab in a Bucket, Skillet Paella, Stuffed Snapper and out of water options like Whiskey Smoked Ribs.
Brick House Tavern + Tap
The Company�� Brick House's interior decor includes custom lighting, dark mahogany woods, open sight lines, high definition television (HD TVs), and an inviting fireplace. In addition to a traditional dining room and bar area, Brick House also offers large communal tables and a section of leather recliners positioned in front of large HD TVs, where guests receive their own TV tray for dining. Outdoor seating is also available on the patio or around an open fire pit at nearly all locations. Both food and beverages are served by personable and engaging service staff. The typical Brick House restaurant is approximately 8,500 square feet and averages approximately 250 seats, which includes both traditional tables and seating options. Brick House offers its guests a selection of contemporary tavern food. Brick House's menu includes 17 appetizers and over 53 entrees. Handcrafted appetizers include Deviled Eggs, Meatloaf Sliders, Brick Pizza, Meat and Cheese Board and Fried Stuffed Olives. Brick House offers an array of burgers, including The Kobe, which is hand formed from American Wagyu beef. Guests can also choose from a selection of homemade entrees, such as Drunken Chops, BBQ Baby Backs, Chicken & Waffles, and its Prime Rib Sandwich. In addition, Brick House's Brick Burgers, include the Gun Show Burger and the Black & Bleu Burger. Brick House's beverage selection includes imported and domestic beers along with hand-pulled cask beer. All Brick House restaurants have a bar that supports a variety of liquor drinks, wine and beer cocktails like the Shandy and Bee Sting, a! s well as! specialty cocktails like the Dark & Stormy, Moscow Mule and The Zombie.
The Company competes with Red Lobster, Bonefish Grill, Landry's Seafood, Bubba Gump Shrimp Company, BJ's Restaurants, Yard House, Cheesecake Factory, Bravo Brio and Buffalo Wild Wings, Applebee's, Chili's, T.G.I. Friday's, Texas Roadhouse and Outback Steakhouse.
Advisors' Opinion:- [By Seth Jayson]
Margins matter. The more Ignite Restaurant Group (Nasdaq: IRG ) keeps of each buck it earns in revenue, the more money it has to invest in growth, fund new strategic plans, or (gasp!) distribute to shareholders. Healthy margins often separate pretenders from the best stocks in the market. That's why we check up on margins at least once a quarter in this series. I'm looking for the absolute numbers, so I can compare them to current and potential competitors, and any trend that may tell me how strong Ignite Restaurant Group's competitive position could be.
Top 5 Restaurant Companies To Buy Right Now: BAB Inc (BABB)
BAB, Inc., incorporated on July 12, 2000, franchises and licenses bagel and muffin retail units under the Big Apple Bagel (BAB) and My Favorite Muffin (MFM) trade names. At November 30, 2012, the Company had 100 franchise units and 6 licensed units in operation in 24 states. The Company additionally derives income from the sale of its trademark bagels, muffins and coffee through nontraditional channels of distribution including under licensing agreements with Kohr Bros. Frozen Custard, Kaleidoscoops, Green Beans Coffee, Sodexo and through direct home delivery of specialty muffin gift baskets and coffee. The Company has two wholly owned subsidiaries: BAB Systems, Inc. (Systems) and BAB Operations, Inc. (Operations). At November 30, 2012, the Company had 100 franchise units and six licensed units in operation in 24 states.
The Company additionally derives income from the sale of its trademark bagels, muffins and coffee through nontraditional channels of distribution including under licensing agreements with Kohr Bros. Frozen Custard, Kaleidoscoops, Green Beans Coffee, Sodexo and through direct home delivery of specialty muffin gift baskets and coffee. The BAB franchised brand consists of units operating as Big Apple Bagels, featuring daily baked bagels, flavored cream cheeses, premium coffees, gourmet bagel sandwiches and other related products. Licensed BAB units serve the Company's par-baked frozen bagel and related products baked daily. BAB units are primarily concentrated in the Midwest and Western United States. The MFM brand consists of units operating as My Favorite Muffin, featuring a variety of freshly baked muffins, coffees and related products, and units operating as My Favorite Muffin and Bagel Cafe, featuring these products as well as a variety of specialty bagel sandwiches and related products.
The Company�� BAB offering franchises in all 50 states, its initial development focus is targeted for the Midwest, specifically Illinois, Michigan, Wisconsin and Ohio. A! s part of its introductory development plan, BAB will be donating 10% of the initial franchise fee from its 50 SweetDuet units to the Cystic Fibrosis Foundation, of which BAB is a corporate sponsor. SweetDuet, as its name implies, is a fusion concept, pairing self-serve frozen yogurt with BAB's exclusive line of My Favorite Muffin gourmet muffins, broadening the shop's offering and therefore differentiating itself from the numerous frozen yogurt outlets already populating the market. SweetDuet shops include BAB's Brewster's Coffee and a streamlined breakfast menu. The concept is designed to work in 1600 square feet of space.
BAB franchised stores daily bake a variety of fresh bagels and offer up to 11 varieties of cream cheese spreads. Stores also offer a variety of breakfast and lunch bagel sandwiches, salads, soups, various dessert items, fruit smoothies, gourmet coffees and other beverages. A typical BAB store is in an area with a mix of both residential and commercial properties and ranges from 1,500 to 2,000 square feet. The Company's current store design is approximately 1,800 square feet, with seating capacity for 20 to 30 persons, and includes approximately 750 square feet devoted to production and baking. A satellite store is typically smaller than a production store, averaging 800 to 1,200 square feet. Although franchise stores may vary in size from other franchise stores, store layout is generally consistent.
MFM franchised stores daily bake 20 to 25 varieties of muffins from over 250 recipes, plus a variety of bagels. They also serve gourmet coffees, beverages and, at My Favorite Muffin and Bagel Cafe locations, a variety of bagel sandwiches and related products. The typical MFM store design is approximately 1,800 square feet, with seating capacity for 20 to 30 persons.The Company advertises its franchising opportunities in directories, newspapers and the Internet.
The Company competes with Einstein Noah Restaurant Group, Panera Bread Company and Brue! gger's Ba! gel Bakery.
Advisors' Opinion:- [By CRWE]
Today, BABB remains (0.00%) +0.000 at $.800 thus far (ref. google finance July 11, 2013).
For the quarter ended May 31, 2013, BAB had revenues of $658,000 and net income of $125,000, or $0.02 per share, versus revenues of $826,000 and net income of $267,000, or $0.04 per share, for the same quarter last year. For the quarter ended May 31, 2012, the Company received a $171,000 payment for the buyout of the Franchise Agreement from its Minot, ND franchisee so the franchisee could pursue its other business interests associated with the local energy boom. In that acceptance by the Company of the voluntary buyout is unique, no such transaction occurred nor was such income earned in the quarter ended May 31, 2013.
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