Friday, August 30, 2013

Which Price Ratio Is the Right Ratio?

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Someone who reads my articles sent me this question:

Geoff,

I think most of your readers understand that every business is unique and therefore requires varying valuation techniques. However, I think that we could benefit from some advice from you on how to recognize what techniques are appropriate for which general type of business… For example, net-nets are easy – in its most simplified form you could ask yourself, "Are the current assets (or some discounted version of them) greater than the total liabilities?" If the answer is yes, you know this is a net-net and should be valued as such.

But what questions would you ask to realize that a certain company is best valued on a price/book value? Maybe something like, "Does the company have a strong intangible brands?" would clue you in that book value is not the right way to look at it? Or, "does the current book value represent reality?" might help you with asset-heavy companies like railroads where P/B might be misleading? Or why would you decide that book value is the most appropriate metric?

What questions would you ask to realize that a certain company should be valued on GAAP earnings rather than FCF? Maybe something like, "How does depreciation affect cash flow?" or something like, "How does growth cap-ex affect FCF?"

What questions would make you think that P/Sales is the right metric to focus on?

Thanks again,

Matt

How do you value a company? How do you know what is a relevant metric and what isn't? It sounds so hard. But it's actually easier than it appears. What you need to do – and this is common sense, but it's amazing how few people mention this – is consider the best use of the asset you are appraising. So, for example if Coca-Cola (KO) is worth some huge multiple of its tangible book value this is not really because tangible bo! ok value does not matter at Coke – it's because tangible book value is not even remotely the best use to which the company could be put. Coke's assets are best used as part of a global super brand. Likewise, Dun & Bradstreet (DNB) has a negative tangible book value. Is this relevant? Or does it not matter at all? Well, tangible book value would matter at DNB if the company's tangible book value was high relative to the company's stock price. If you could take the company's assets and put them to some other use – which is kind of the general principle we are discussing when we use tangible book value – then that is always relevant when it exceeds the company's stock price. So, a high net current asset value, a high tangible book value, etc. is always relevant. Is a low value always relevant?

Not really. Statistics obscure this. If you look at stock returns, it's often the case that companies with very high price-to-book ratios will underperform stocks with rather lowish price-to-book ratios. That makes it seem like price-to-book is this continuous spectrum of highly relevant information. It's not. Price-to-book is very relevant when it's low. Price-to-book has special relevance when it is low. At best, it has general relevance when it is high. So, for example, a company with a high price-to-book ratio may be a bad purchase in part due to its high price-to-book value – but this is not so much a special issue having to do with price-to-book. Rather, the stock likely has too high a price-to-earnings ratio, price-to-sales ratio, etc.

Look at the metrics that really matter:

· Price to net cash

· Price to net current assets

· Price to tangible book

· Price to earnings

Now let's flip that order:

1. Price to net cash

2. Price to net current asset value

3. Price to tangible book value

4. Price to earnings

The first use is the lowest use. You can buy the company's stock and simply pay out the ! cash. Eve! n a loss making company has value to someone who can contest control of it – if the company has net cash. Next is net current assets. This is working capital. We're talking about cash, receivables, and inventories. To some extent, we are talking about liquidation value. NCAV is not a perfect proxy for liquidation value. But whenever a company is selling below its net current asset value, it's a pretty good indicator that a company is selling below its liquidation value. There can be some strange exceptions. But, usually, a company's non-current assets have some value. And this value will often make up for any overstatement of current assets on the books.

Also, note the way current assets are accounted for. What we call cash is usually either of a very short maturity or is marked to market. It's rarely overstated or understated by much. Receivables are stated net of doubtful accounts. And inventories are carried at the lower of cost or market. We'll call that cost. In other words, the book value of receivables is no higher than the amount owed (it's often lower) and the inventory is stuff that the company routinely sells for a higher price than it keeps it on the books for.

So NCAV has some padding built in. When you add in whatever the company's non-current assets are really worth you see why Ben Graham used NCAV as a proxy for liquidation value. And while it's true that in the modern world there are plenty of off balance sheet liabilities and wind down costs that didn't exist in Graham's day, it's also true that some companies have valuable intangibles on their balance sheets that would have value in liquidation. These include the rights to a name. So, overall, it doesn't make a lot of sense to argue about NCAV versus liquidation value. Unless you are an expert on liquidations or the type of company you are researching – you're unlikely to come up with a more realistic assessment of a stock's liquidation value than its NCAV.

Next is tangible book.! This one! 's tricky. It's basically a proxy for replacement cost. It's saying that if a company already exists and can't make money in an industry, why would other companies enter that industry? So, if a Company has a $100 book value and earnings of $3 a share – it is earning 3% on its equity. Well, 30-Year AAA corporate bonds now yield closer to 4%. So, why would anyone start up a new business to compete with the old business – presumably lowering both their returns in the process – if it could make more money buying some silly old bonds instead.

Now, of course, there are plenty of reasons why companies do this all the time. You want to avoid any industry where you think companies will continue to invest in expansion even beyond the point where it makes economic sense.

But we also need to keep in mind that at many companies we're looking at tangible book value that is actually understating the cost to a new entrant of building the same business – sometimes by a lot. So as long as competitors are relatively rational and nobody is stuck in a situation of constantly having too much capacity relative to the demand needed to earn decent returns on invested capital – tangible book value should be another value proxy.

In this case, we are approximating the value of a business once capital has flowed where it ought to flow. In a terrible business – that means out of the industry. In a great business – that means into the industry. For various reasons, price-to-book is a trickier proxy than some of the others. It's something you should investigate yourself. You want to make sure the stock's book value bears some resemblance to the replacement cost of the company's resources (both tangible and intangible). The quick and convenient approach is just to assume that tangible book value approximates replacement cost and that replacement cost approximates intrinsic value.

In some cases this is totally untrue. For example, the replacement costs of railroads – which a! re regula! ted – are much, much higher than their tangible book value. There are even some companies where the concept of replacement cost is close to meaningless because their resources are irreplaceable (this usually has to do with where the asset is). Sadly, there are companies who own lots of assets that would not exist if they had the choice of building them anew today. Would Barnes & Noble (BKS) have as many stores today if it had known in the past what the current demand – and expected future demand – for printed books would be?

No.

And nobody in their right mind would decide they want to start a newspaper today. Newspapers exist in this world merely as a vestige of a time when they served a useful function. For some folks, newspapers still serve that function. But those folks would be served in a different way if there hadn't once been a time before the internet. That's the environment in which newspapers evolved. They are not well suited to today's environment. So their tangible book value may be meaningless. But unless you have reasons for assuming subpar economics will continue in an industry for the very long-term there's no good reason to assume a company won't one day trade at its tangible book value.

The obvious exception to this is when a company is distressed. If a company has a bad Z-Score, F-Score, etc. and could be headed toward bankruptcy – then obviously it may never get a chance to trade at tangible book value. So, always judge safety separately from price. And ensure the stocks you buy meet both criteria:

1. Safe

2. Cheap

Next is earning power. You can think of this as a business's "franchise value". This is the value of a business with some kind of moat. Without a moat, a business will earn returns similar to those of other businesses with equal amounts of capital tied up in their operations. While inflation and other factors may cause even mediocre companies to have intrinsic values that diverge from their stated book val! ue – th! e truth will be that they are not worth some multiple of earnings apart from assets. In the end, their intrinsic value is tied to their assets. It is not tied to the special use to which those assets are being put.

So, if a company is unique in some way – if it has a defensible competitive position – you can value it based on earnings alone. This is the best use of the company's assets. And you always value a company according to its best use. Obviously, if a company's moat is breached and you expect it to slide into mediocrity – then it should be valued for its generic assets and not for the special competitive position it holds.

So, basically these are the 4 ways of valuing a company:

1. Cash

2. Current Assets

3. Tangible Book

4. Earnings

If we really wanted to get detailed and theoretical I'd say there are 2 other uses. There is the company's use in a takeover. In other words, it's value to a competitor. And there is the company's value to a stock speculator. As Buffett and Munger have said before stocks are partly valued as productive things and partly valued as collectibles. They are partly valued because they have assets and cash flows and so on. And they are partly valued because they go up. And people like things that go up. And they want to own them. And they want to speculate in them.

Of course, making all this even more complicated is the issue of present day figures versus future figures. In some cases, it is possible to estimate the future to some extent. And in those instances, stocks are not valued according to today's earnings alone but according to expected future earnings. This, of course, raises the issue of growth. Which is a topic for another day.

For today, the important thing is to think of each of these values as lines of defense. A stock that is worth 15 times earnings is also worth its tangible book, and its net current assets, and its net cash value. It's just that these values are much, much ! lower tha! n the company's value as a wide-moat business with consistent earnings. So we only consider earnings.

But appraisal always involves finding a stock's best use. So, you can work down this list in reverse asking how confident you are in each number:

1. Earnings

2. Tangible Book

3. Net Current Assets

4. Cash

If you aren't confident in a stock's earnings – move on to tangible book. If you aren't confident a stock is worth tangible book – for example: a perpetually money losing business – move on to net current assets. If you aren't confident in net current assets (which probably means the inventory is dodgy) move on to net cash.

Work through the list that way. If a company has good earnings, book value, etc. and yet you manage to buy that stock at its NCAV or net cash – well, that's a bonus.

But appraisal means working through that list from top to bottom: earnings, tangible book, NCAV, cash – and stopping at the first number you can count on.

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Thursday, August 29, 2013

Strong Buy on Newpark Resources - Analyst Blog

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On Jul 6, Zacks Investment Research upgraded Newpark Resources Inc. (NR) to a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy).

Why the Upgrade?

The product and service provider to the oil and gas exploration industry delivered positive earnings surprises in three out of the last four quarters with an average beat of 3.8%.

With the international drilling market heating up, Newpark Resources has succeeded in winning quite a few contracts, thanks to its quality of products and services. In Jun 2013, Newpark Resources opened a state-of-the-art Laboratory Facility in Katy, Texas which will further ensure the supply of technically advanced products to its clients.

The company is scheduled to release its second quarter earnings in the latter half of this month. Newpark Resources' performance during the quarter indicates that it will again beat expectations this quarter.

In Apr 2013, Newpark Resources received a two-year contract from a unit of TOTAL S.A. (TOT) to provide drilling fluids and related services for a series of wells planned in the Campos Basin. The company won another contract from an oil major to supply drilling fluids and related services for a series of wells to be drilled in the Black Sea.

In May 2013, Newpark Resources received a contract from the Kuwait Oil Company to provide drilling fluids and related services for land operation. This contract can generate $75 million for the company, depending upon the activity of its Kuwaiti counterpart.

These contracts show a steady demand for its products in both inland and offshore operations. In addition, consistent performance from the company enables it to reward its shareholders. The board of directors has again approved a $50 million share repurchase program for 2013 following the $50 million repurchased in 2012.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2013 and 2014 are ! 81 cents and 99 cents per share respectively. This reflects year-over-year growth of 22.35% and 22.91% in 2013 and 2014 respectively.

Besides Newpark Resources, other operators in the sector having a favorable Zacks Rank and are Exterran Partners, L.P. (EXLP) and Dawson Geophysical Company (DWSN). Both these companies currently retain a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy).

e-Commerce Stock Update - July 2013 (pt. 2) - Industry ...

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This is part two of our e-Commerce Industry Outlook. Click here to read part one.

Although retail e-Commerce is the segment that most of us are interested in, it is in fact just a part of the overall e-Commerce market. In fact, retailers and service providers generate just 4.7% and 3.0%, respectively of their revenues online, a slightly higher percentage than they did in the prior year. The U.S. Census Bureau categorizes these two segments as business-to-consumer.

According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the manufacturing sector is the largest contributor to e-commerce sales (49.3% of their total shipments), followed by merchant wholesalers (24.3% of their total sales). These two segments make up the business-to-business category.

This places the business-to-business category at 90% of total e-Commerce sales, with the balance coming from the business-to-consumer category. The latest numbers from the Bureau suggest that the fastest-growing segments were retail and wholesale. [All the above data from the U.S. Census Bureau relate to 2011, as published in May 2013]

The industry is evolving very rapidly, so data collection and evaluation are particularly difficult. Consequently, one has to rely largely on surveys by both government and private agencies.

In this section, we will discuss segments of the e-Commerce market than do not relate directly to the retail of goods, and discuss instead travel, payments, security and advertising.

Travel

The U.S. Commerce Department expects international travel to the U.S. to continue increasing over the next few years. Visitor volume is currently expected to increase 6-8% a year from 2012 to 2016 leading to a 49% increase in the number of users during the period.

Visitors from the Middle East are expected to be the slowest-growing (29%). South America, Asia and Oceania growth rates ! are expected to be comparable at 83%, 82% and 82%, respectively.

The fastest growth is expected to come from China (232%), South Korea (200%), Brazil (150%), Russian Federation (139%) and India (94%). Travel and tourism is one of the country's strongest industries, contributing a trade surplus in each of the last 20 years.

The top travel booking sites are Booking.com, Expedia.com, Hotels.com, Priceline.com, Kayak.com (acquired by Priceline), Travelocity.com, Orbitz.com and Hotwire.com. Since Booking.com and Kayak are part of Priceline (PCLN) and both Hotels.com and Hotwire.com part of Expedia (EXPE), this narrows down the top companies in the segment to Priceline, Expedia, Orbitz Worldwide (OWW) and Travelocity. However, there are several others worth considering that include Ctrip International (CTRP), MakeMyTrip (MMYT) and TripAdvisor (TRIP), which was spun off from Expedia.

The global travel market grew 4% in 2012 and is expected to grow another 2-3% this year. The Asia/Pacific region is expected to see the strongest growth (up 6%), followed by Europe and South America (mainly Brazil) at 2% each. North America (mainly U.S.) is expected to be flat this year. [World Travel Monitor 2012]

According to the April 2013 TravelClick North American Hospitality Review (NAHR), both occupancy and average daily rates (ADRs) in North America are seeing steady growth this year, with individual bookings (both leisure and business) doing better than group bookings. In the second quarter of 2013, total travel occupancy growth was 3.6% from last year with ADR growth even better at 3.8%.

Online travel agents (OTAs) are growing the fastest this year – up 13.7% in the first quarter, according to the TravelClick North American Distribution Review (NADR). The hotels' own websites were up 5.0%, with direct walk-ins and calls to the hotel growing 3.7%. The areas of weakness were the global distribution system used by travel agents and CRS (calls to a hotel's toll-free number).
Share! of individual bookings-



Global corporate travel bookings were up 8.8% in April, according to Pegasus Solutions, which is the single largest processor of electronic hotel transactions. This is the highest volume growth through GDSs since August 2011.

Smartphones are playing a key role in travel purchases, especially for last minute purchases. eMarketer expects smartphone travel researchers in the U.S. to grow to 50 million or 40% of all digital travel researchers this year, with total U.S. mobile travel sales touching $13.6 billion.

The top site for travel content is TripAdvisor, visited by 60% of Americans when choosing a hotel. Google's (GOOG) YouTube is now growing in popularity and is the second in line, according to MMGY Global's 2013 Portrait of American Travelers study.

Another report by PhocusWright mentioned that when online penetration of the travel market reached 35% in any country, growth rates were likely to slow down to single-digits. The research firm mentioned that only the U.S., U.K. and Scandinavia had reached this level of penetration and most other markets across Europe, Asia and Latin America would continue to show good growth rates.

Payment Systems

With practically all market research indicating solid growth in e-Commerce sales over the next few years, online players are vying with each other to come out with convenient and secure payment solutions.

The FIS Mobile Wallet from Fidelity National Information Services Inc. (FIS) is basically a bar code reader that feeds information related to the purchase into the user's smartphone and uses it as a medium to transfer the information to the cloud. Online purchase of merchandise is also possible. The solution provides good security, since the transaction is carried out entirely in the cloud through the retailer's and banker's applications and personal info! rmation i! s not shared at the time of purchase.

QR code payments have already been made by most smartphone users in the U.S. and the technology is moving mainstream. However, the safety of the system comes at a price, which is the time it takes to complete a transaction. This is the reason that Google is still hanging on to its digital wallet.

Google's digital wallet allows a customer to make a payment by waving his mobile phone over a POS terminal. Other than the convenience of the whole thing, the main attraction being highlighted is the security of the payment channel, since neither the customer nor the retailer would be recording the personal information related to the customer. Adoption of the device, although it is some way off, will have a remarkable effect on the volume and value of mobile transactions, since it should increase the percentage of higher-value sales.

However, the cost of POS terminals is a downside to the system that could easily turn away retail partners. This is an evolving area and much could change over the next few years.

Visa (V) has also jumped on the bandwagon, claiming that its V.me is a digital wallet with a difference. Not only can it be used to make mobile contactless payments (bar code, QR code or NFC), but it can also be used for online checkout (it remembers card details from several providers).

The greatest success however is currently being enjoyed by eBay's Paypal, which has seen success at a large number of traditional retailers such as The Home Depot (HD) and Office Depot (OD). One drawback that remains is that although the system is itself secure, there is always a security risk for a buyer not used to dealing with Paypal, since it requires personal information.

Mobile banking is set to grow very strongly over the next few years, according to Juniper Research. The research firm estimates that a billion mobile devices (or 15% of the installed base) will be used for banking transactions by 2017, up from an expected 590 mi! llion at ! the end of this year. Most banks already offer at least one mobile banking offering, with some larger banks offering more than one option. Messaging remains the most popular across the world, but apps are likely to remain the preferred channel in most developed markets.

Mobile banking has not picked up sufficiently in either the U.S. or Canada, due to security-related concerns. However, an analysis by Deloitte shows that mobile banking could become the most-preferred banking method by 2020. The study estimates that 20-25 million "Generation Y" (Gen Y) consumers will become new banking customers by 2015.

A banking.com study shows that 48% of Gen Y consumers are already using online banking services. Moreover, their preference for online banking is so high that around 30% said they would consider switching financial institutions if they did not provide the service. Both online and mobile banking by Gen Y largely consists of checking account balances and transferring funds, although they also like to pay bills on the platform.

It is believed that high smartphone penetration, higher income within this group and greater digital sophistication will drive increased demand for mobile banking services. Since mobile banking is expected to be the most cost efficient for banks, investment in technology to improve and expand mobile banking services is likely to increase.

Security

With online transactions expected to boom over the next few years, the topmost concern remains security. While banks will spend significantly on secure payment systems, hackers are expected to have a field day, largely targeting the flood of customers going online. Last year saw a huge increase in security breaches, something that may be expected to continue.

Recent research from McAfee revealed certain important facts: first, that mobile malware was primarily spreading through apps; second, 75% of infected apps came from Google Play; third, the chances of downloading malware or suspicious URLs! was 1 in! 6; fourth, 40% of malware families disrupt the system in more than one way, which is an indication of the increasing sophistication of hackers; and fifth, 23% of mobile spyware can result in data loss.

Even more alarming is that even "secure" payment platforms like digital wallets using NFC technology can now be infected by worms within close range of devices ("bump and infect"). An infected device can give out personal information during the payment process that can be used to steal from the wallet.

Mobile security offerings currently come from AirWatch, Apple (AAPL), Avast, Check Point, Cisco (CSCO), IBM (IBM), Juniper (JNPR), Kaspersky, McAfee, Microsoft (MSFT), MobileIron, RIM (Blackberry) (BBRY), Symantec (SYMC) and Trend Micro, among others.

Alternative payment systems will continue to gain popularity. While some of these payment systems, such as eBay's (EBAY) PayPal have been around for a while, other systems, such as Google's digital wallet, V.me and the FIS Mobile Wallet are still in the making. Alternative payment systems never really gained momentum in the past because of the low volume of transactions. However, as online transactions continue to increase, many more such systems could suddenly become more available.

We expect mobile security to become a major focus area for technology companies, since this is the stumbling block to payments through the mobile platform (currently just 2% of U.S. online spending).

Digital Advertising

The U.S. digital advertising market has seen some very strong growth in the past few years, despite the recession that impacted the entire economy. eMarketer estimates that the market will grow 14.0% in 2013, compared to the 15.0% growth in 2012.

Growth rates are expected to continue declining: 12.4% in 2014, 10.2% in 2015, 9.0% in 2016 and 6.9% in 2017. Retail, financial services, consumer packaged goods (CPG) and travel in that order, are expected to drive this growth.

The current strengt! h in onli! ne advertising is coming primarily from the growing popularity of the display format. Of all the forms of online advertising, display (including video, banner ads, rich media and sponsorships) is expected to see the strongest growth over the next few years. Also, of all the forms of display advertising, video and banner ads are expected to grow the strongest from 2011 to 2016.

Search will remain supreme until 2016, gradually giving way to video and banner ads, both of which will grow rapidly. The lower pricing of video and banner ads has made them popular with brand advertisers, so ad inventories are solid. Another factor favoring display ads is the proliferation of smartphones, where the smaller screens make display ads more effective than text ads.

The underlying drivers of growth of the display format are the continued increase in the number of users, greater propensity of users to consume online, a growing inventory of advertisements that serve to lower advertisement prices and the need to create brand awareness online.

Search advertising is expected to remain popular, because results are measurable, and therefore, more predictable than other media. This also makes the market more resilient in recessionary conditions, since advertisers are more confident about the results of their spending.

Since ecommerce entails the buying and selling of goods or services over electronic systems, it includes companies that are totally dependent on these sales, those that are gradually moving to it, as well as those that want to use it partially. Therefore, the biggest sellers or the ones growing the strongest are not necessarily those that are solely dependent on the Internet. The following diagrams seek to explain the position of companies primarily dependent on the Internet for the distribution of their goods and services in the context of the Zacks Industry Rank.

Two (Retail/Wholesale and Computer & Technology) of the 16 broad Zacks sectors are related to the ecommerc! e industr! y as depicted below.



We rank the 264 industries across the 16 Zacks sectors based on the earnings outlook and fundamental strength of the constituent companies in each industry. To learn more visit: About Zacks Industry Rank.

The outlook for industries positioned at #88 or lower is 'Positive,' between #89 and #176 is 'Neutral' and #177 and higher is 'Negative.'

Therefore, Internet Commerce being in the 114th position is in Neutral territory, with Internet Services (185th position) being negative and Internet Services – Delivery (58th position) being positive.

So it is not surprising that the average rank of stocks in the Internet Commerce industry is 3.00, for Internet Services it is 3.15, while for Internet Services – Delivery, it is 2.76. [Note: Zacks Rank #1 denotes Strong Buy, #2 is Buy, #3 means Hold, #4 Sell and #5 Strong Sell].

Earnings Trends

The broader Retail/Wholesale sector, of which Internet Commerce is a part, appears to be turning the corner. While the revenue beat ratio is on the low side (34.1%), the earnings beat ratio is pretty robust at 61.4%.

Total earnings for the sector were up 5.7%, but not nearly as good as the 7.4% growth in the fourth quarter of 2012. Total revenues were up 1.5% from last year compared to a 4.9% increase in the fourth quarter.

The other companies we are discussing in the e-Commerce outlook (Part 2) fall under the broader Technology sector. Here too, we see a fairly strong earnings beat ratio of 63.1%, partially supported by a revenue beat ratio of 45.6%.

However, total earnings in the sector were down 4.4% compared to a 1.7% increase in the fourth quarter. Total revenues did slightly better, increasing 2.9% from last year, down from 5.3% in the fourth quarter.

Initial earnings estimates for 2013 and 2014 indicate double-digit growth in both years for Retail/Wholesale. Technology on th! e other h! and is expected to be flat this year and up double-digits in the next.

OPPORTUNITIES

While many of the companies discussed are expected to do well this year, there are a few stand-out opportunities.

TripAdvisor (TRIP) is doing extremely well right now and the company's decision to invest in offline advertising (TV) makes sense. Traffic continues to surge, as the company continues to add content, both in the U.S. and important international markets.

Another good investment is Yahoo (YHOO), which is altering course under the leadership of Marissa Meyer. The company has been acquiring aggressively to position itself in the mobile segment and last reports indicated growing engagement.

Facebook (FB) is another opportunity worth looking into. The company is cozying up with Samsung, which has taken the mobile market by storm. It is also getting more innovative by the day, which is the only way to success here.

WEAKNESSES

We do not see a lot of weakness, although many of the companies may not be great opportunities either.

Revenue growth prospects for online travel companies Priceline, Expedia and Orbitz Worldwide are good. International expansion is a key factor driving growth for these companies and collaborative agreements with local players will be the key. Lower-value inventories in international markets are on the rise, so margins could be impacted.

Wednesday, August 28, 2013

GE Cogen System in YG Group's Mill - Analyst Blog

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Jiangsu Yonggang Group (YG Group) will be installing four of General Electric Company's (GE) Jenbacher cogeneration systems to provide cleaner energy to its steel mill facilities. The cogeneration systems will be fueled with blast furnace gas (BFG).

The Yonggang power plant in China is expected to be the first commercial gas engine cogeneration plant in the world to use BFG. The YG group produces 5 million of steel per year and by installing GE's Jenbacher gas engines, it is expected to reduce 63,000 tons of carbon dioxide emissions annually at the mills.. Banking on the improved flexibility, reliability and efficiency of GE's gas engines, the combined heat and power (CHP) plant at the YG Group steel mill is expected to offer a total efficiency of up to 83.5% at reduced energy costs.

GE's Jenbacher gas engines are an advanced and reliable addition to its product line and aims to achieve maximum efficiency with low emissions. This innovative technology addresses the increasing demand for high-efficiency gas engine solutions and aims to meet the development needs of the YG Group.

General Electric is one of the most diversified technologies and financial service corporations in the world. Its segments include Power & Water, Oil & Gas, Energy Management, Aviation, Healthcare, Transportation, Home & Business Solutions, and GE Capital. GE Power & Water produces gas, steam and aero derivative turbines; generators; combined cycle systems; and renewable energy solutions, as well as provides water treatment services and equipment.

General Electric currently has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). Other stocks that look promising and are worth a look now are Honeywell International Inc (HON), Macquarie Infrastructure Company LLC (MIC) and Tyco International Ltd. (TYC), each carrying a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy).


Monday, August 26, 2013

Will This Tech Titanic Continue Rewarding Shareholders?

With shares of Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) trading around $32.69, is MSFT an OUTPERFORM, WAIT AND SEE or STAY AWAY? Let's analyze the stock with the relevant sections of our CHEAT SHEET investing framework:

T = Trends for a Stock’s Movement

Microsoft is engaged in developing, licensing, and supporting a range of software products and services. The company also designs and sells hardware, and delivers online advertising to the customers. It operates in five segments: Windows & Windows Live Division, Server and Tools, Online Services Division, Microsoft Business Division, and Entertainment and Devices Division. Microsoft’s products include operating systems for personal computers, servers, phones, and other intelligent devices; server applications for distributed computing environments; productivity applications; business solution applications; desktop and server management tools. As software and hardware products continue to see explosive advancement, technology bellwethers like Microsoft are poised to see reasonable growth. Companies, economies, and populations worldwide are expanding and adopting Microsoft’s products at an increasing rate which leads to rising profits ahead.

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T = Technicals on the Stock Chart are Strong

Microsoft stock has part of a long-term value range but it may be getting ready to cruise higher. The stock has seen an explosive move higher recently due to a very positive earnings report. Analyzing the price trend and its strength can be done using key simple moving averages. What are the key moving averages? The 50-day (pink), 100-day (blue), and 200-day (yellow) simple moving averages. As seen in the daily price chart below, Microsoft is trading above its rising key averages which signal neutral to bullish price action in the near-term.

MSFT

(Source: Thinkorswim)

Taking a look at the implied volatility (red) and implied volatility skew levels of Microsoft options may help determine if investors are bullish, neutral, or bearish.

Implied Volatility (IV)

30-Day IV Percentile

90-Day IV Percentile

Microsoft Options

22.52%

43%

39%

What does this mean? This means that investors or traders are buying a good amount of call and put options contracts, as compared to the last 30 and 90 trading days.

Put IV Skew

Call IV Skew

June Options

Flat

Average

July Options

Flat

Average

As of today, there is an average demand from call buyers or sellers and low demand by put buyers or high demand by put sellers, all neutral to bullish over the next two months. To summarize, investors are buying a good amount of call and put option contracts and are leaning neutral to bullish over the next two months.

On the next page, let’s take a look at the earnings and revenue growth rates and the conclusion.

E = Earnings Are Mixed Quarter-Over-Quarter

Rising stock prices are often strongly correlated with rising earnings and revenue growth rates. Also, the last four quarterly earnings announcement reactions help gauge investor sentiment on Microsoft’s stock. What do the last four quarterly earnings and revenue growth (Y-O-Y) figures for Microsoft look like and more importantly, how did the markets like these numbers?

2013 Q1

2012 Q4

2012 Q3

2012 Q2

Earnings Growth (Y-O-Y)

20.00%

-2.56%

-22.06%

-108.52%

Revenue Growth (Y-O-Y)

17.71%

2.73%

-7.85%

3.98%

Earnings Reaction

3.36%

0.9%

-2.91%

-1.76%

Microsoft has seen mixed earnings and revenue figures over the last four quarters. From these figures, the markets have been very excited about Microsoft’s recent earnings announcements.

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P = Excellent Relative Performance Versus Peers and Sector

How has Microsoft stock done relative to its peers, Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), Google (NASDAQ:GOOG), Oracle (NASDAQ:ORCL), and sector?

Microsoft

Apple

Google

Oracle

Sector

Year-to-Date Return

23.96%

-12.85%

23.05%

-0.27%

10.41%

Microsoft has been a relative performance leader, year-to-date.

Conclusion

Microsoft provides highly demanded software and hardware products to a wide range of consumers and companies operating in an array of industries worldwide. The stock has been part of a long-term range for quite a while now but has recently made a strong move towards higher prices. Earnings and revenue figures have shows mixed signs of growth, over the last four quarters, however, investors have been very excited about the most recent announcement. Relative to its peers and sector, Microsoft has been a year-to-date performance leader. Look for Microsoft stock to continue to OUTPERFORM.

Set A Plan and Get Invested

If you've been in cash for the last few years, you've missed some gains, but we don't think it's too late to get back in, says fund specialist Janet Brown, editor of NoLoad FundX.

Overall, US markets have been on a tear since last November. After such strong gains this year, we may see more volatility in the market.

Ned Davis Research points out that, historically, when the S&P 500 has gained 15% or more through July, "the benchmark has struggled over the following few months." If this occurs this year, it could present a buying opportunity for those who are looking to get into the market.

Valuations are still appealing. Stocks are not as expensive as they were in 2007, and the market is different, too. In 2007, most markets had enjoyed strong gains. But this year, many areas of the market haven't participated—look at emerging markets or Europe funds, for example. Eventually some areas will have some potential catching up to do.

Even if this year's rally looked like 2007, that wouldn't tell us whether we were at the peak of the market, ready to face a substantial decline, like 2008.

Market action rarely repeats, so the next bear market is probably not going to be like the previous bear market, just as the latest bull market isn't like the previous one. In 2008, all sectors sank, but that may not hold true in the next decline.

What should you do now? It's easy to get caught up in where the market's been and where it's headed, but if you're considering putting money to work, it's important to take a step back and consider why you are investing in the first place.

Many investors are looking to fund long-term goals, such as retirement or their child's college education. In order to achieve those goals, most investors need their portfolios to grow, and the best option for long- term growth is stocks. The next challenge is what to invest in.

We urge investors to set a plan to get back in the market. We tend to get a substantial part of a portfolio invested right away, and then we invest the rest gradually, on a schedule set in advance, often making additional investments on down days in the market.

When you're ready to get invested, market sell-offs are an opportunity to get invested at lower prices.

If you've been out of the market and missed some gains, you may be tempted to compensate by taking on more risk. We believe it can be better to take less risk when you are just starting to invest again. Remember, you aren't just looking to get invested, you're looking to stay invested.

Meanwhile, our strategy is to Upgrade portfolios into the best performing funds. Upgrading is the investment approach we developed years ago, and have been applying in our client accounts for decades.

It follows market leadership by keeping assets in the best-performing no-load mutual funds and exchange traded funds, as determined by our performance-based ranking system.

Among total return funds, here a look at our current top ranked mutual funds:

AmBeacon Balanced (AABPX)

Dodge & Cox Balanced (DODBX)

Mairs & Powers Balanced (MAPOX)

T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation (PRWCX)

Villere Balanced (VILLX)

Subscribe to NoLoad FundX here…

More from MoneyShow.com:

August Doldrums? Keep Your Focus

A Gordian Knot? Beware the Taper

A Small-Cap Dividend Strategy

Saturday, August 24, 2013

Roubini and Bremmer Warn of ‘New Abnormal’

Is a new economic crisis that makes 2008 look mild in the offing?

Nouriel Roubini and Ian Bremmer argue in a lengthy survey of world gloom that the possibility of such a crisis is ever present unless world leaders find a way to restore order to a world that is teeming with political and economic risk.

Ian BremmerBremmer (left), the principal of the Eurasia Group of political risk consultants, and Roubini, an NYU professor and economist whose “Dr. Doom” appellation was freshly earned in this eight-page article in Institutional Investor, warn against a growing complacency that might mislead investors into thinking the “New Normal” economy is fading away.

Rather they argue that what they term “The New Abnormal” is ongoing, and may produce in the years ahead extreme levels of upheaval that we’ve seen in the past five years: instability that has brought about the worst economy since the Great Depression, challenges to viability of the Eurozone, the Arab Spring and the attendant Syrian civil war.

What makes our times abnormal is the lack of world order, which Bremmer and Roubini term the G-Zero—a period during which there is no big power with the ability or desire to impose geopolitical order amid crises or write the big checks that underwrite stability.

“The uncertainty and volatility of the past half-decade is far from finished—and is almost sure to trigger new crises,” the high-profile consultants write.

Nouriel RoubiniA key reason is that the world has failed to address structural issues that continue to fester and indeed ensure the resources to solve future problems may be absent when needed. Bremmer and Roubini (right) take readers on a world gloom and doom tour:

The United States, they say, has been lulled into complacency by greater volatility elsewhere, which has had the effect of making the U.S. and its dollar seem the “safest port in the storm.” As such, Democrats and Republicans have not felt the pressure to produce a grand bargain on spending, entitlement and taxes.

Similarly in Europe, the European Central Bank has used its monetary tools to take pressure off currencies in the periphery where there is austerity fatigue even as bailout fatigue takes root in Europe’s core.

On the BRICS front, China and India are avoiding crucial reforms to avoid short-term pain, and Brazil is not making the most of its current advantages, while authoritarianism runs rampant in Russia, and social cleavages threaten South Africa.

Compounding this increased level of volatility, the authors warn of a general disengagement in foreign policy: a post-Libya retreat by European powers, a Chinese politiburo with little interest in foreign affairs and a G-20 that only coordinates meaningful action under shared sense of severe threat, as last occurred in 2008 and 2009.

On the economic front, Bremmer and Roubini argue there has been no serious attempt to respond to the challenges of how to deleverage from high debt, deal with aging populations, impose structural reforms and step back from bloated welfare states.

“Advanced economies continue to face complicated challenges, but the policy responses that political officials have used so far—monetary and quantitative easing and fiscal stimulus that is now constrained by high debt levels—are Band-Aids applied to avert a near-term slide back into recession rather than a genuine effort to resolve long-term structural questions.”

Fiscally, the world is moving in the wrong direction, they warn, in not reducing liabilities and back-ending austerity. In monetary policy, central bank strategies are nationally oriented with a focus on depreciating currencies to boost exports—a trend that could make full-blown currency wars more likely.

“Advanced economies are now running out of policy bullets,” while at the same time setting the stage for new crises by creating asset inflation rather than real growth (through quantitative easing) amidst high debt that will leave no room for stimulus as a viable future policy.

Bremmer and Roubini regard emerging economies as prime potential trigger of future problems.

China is a case in point, they say. When it overtakes the U.S. in GDP, it will still be a developing country whose many problems—a shrinking labor force, aging population and degraded environment—will make its economic course volatile and thus roil the world economy.

Given the investor audience, the consultant duo launch into a macro view of winners and losers in the new abnormal.

Outperformers are countries that can make politically unpopular decisions and those with diversified economic partners. They rate Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Malaysia, Mexico, the Philippines and Turkey as having the best prospects, and India, Peru, South Africa and Thailand as having the worst.

They cite Canada favorably for its success at lessening its dependence on the U.S.

In the corporate sphere, the authors warn today’s environment is tougher for banks and investment banks: “Higher capital and liquidity ratios will reduce returns but will also slow credit creation and hamper growth,” adding that if economic tail risks materialize, there no longer exists the political capital for bailouts nor fiscal resources to rescue banks.

Ironically, the world’s best chance of coping with the New Abnormal would be an emergency that can induce world powers to cooperate on global problems.

While Bremmer and Roubini call out the usual suspects as crisis trigger—a new European financial meltdown or Mideast instability—they also speculate that the current credit and equity bubbles now in the making in the U.S. could be its source.

How the U.S. transitions from its current loose monetary policy will be key:

“Exiting too fast will crash the real economy, while exiting too slowly will first create a huge bubble and then crash the financial system,” they warn.

Bremmer and Roubini conlude that U.S.-China cooperation will be of paramount importance in coordinating a soft landing from the New Abnormal to the emerging world order.

---

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Friday, August 23, 2013

ConocoPhillips: Meeting Commitments And Raising Dividends

At their last quarterly earnings report, Wall Street finally saw light at the end of the tunnel for ConocoPhillips (COP). Management made good on its promise to grow production by 3-5%, hitting it right in the middle at 4% organic production growth. Margins continued expanding, too. These factors combined to deliver normalized earnings income growth of 17%. To those who have been following Conoco with attention to the long term, this is really no surprise at all.

Since spinning off their refining assets into Phillips66 (PSX), ConocoPhillips has focused on the following four long-term, transformative objectives:

Sell off disparate, far-flung assets in less favorable political climates.Concentrate on those in more stable places with higher margins and nicer tax regimes.Develop and grow production in these favorable areas andUltimately use those results as a base from which to grow dividends on and already industry-leading yield.

These goals, while stated openly and spoken about in detail by management, have been met with skepticism and worry by Wall St. Many have feared the funding gap caused by these expensive moves to new assets, and have hence stayed away. For over a year the stock failed to gain momentum. Now, however, results are coming in as Conoco this quarter outshined both Exxon and Chevron. Those who have been with Conoco are now reaping the reward.

This article will give a condensed rundown of Conoco's quarterly results, look at the progress of the company's big initiatives and then finally go over valuations with a focus on dividends and income.

ConocoPhillips explores for and produces crude oil, natural gas, natural gas liquids, liquefied natural gas and bitumen. Their production assets are in North America, Europe, Asia and Australia. Its concentration is on growing North American shale, oil sands, North Sea developm! ent projects and a few others. They explore in a number of places around the world. ConocoPhillips' market cap is $81.7 billion.

Falling Into Place

Production growth for ConocoPhillips is going very much according to schedule. Year-on-year organic production was up four percent this quarter and the majority of it was from the lower 48 states, which is dominated by higher margin liquids, meaning oil, condensate and natural gas liquids. The Canadian oil sands contributed, as did Malaysia and China. While Conoco is focused mostly on North America, you can see they have some valuable growth assets overseas as well.

Margin increase is a huge part of the company's plans for success. Conoco's goal is to be a leaner company than it was in it's previous incarnation as an integrated "supermajor." Much of this margin expansion comes from focusing incremental production on oil and natural gas liquids, which now fetch much higher margins and rates of return versus a "barrel equivalent" of dry natural gas. In addition, they have dispossessed assets in politically dicey areas and places which have high costs of doing business, especially with "red tape" and taxes. This means they have worked to sell assets in Nigeria, Algeria and Kazakhstan. Those assets are now sold. At the same time, they've loaded up on North Sea growth projects, deepwater Malaysia, which has particularly low taxes, Canadian oil sands and especially United States shale assets.

The Pruning

Management is now working on the divestment of some smaller, non-core assets in Southwest Louisiana and is "pruning" some holdings in the Canadian oil sands. Whil! e they li! ke their oil sands assets, management feels they are a little overweight in them and proceeds are needed to build a larger exploratory drilling inventory for growth past 2017.

Exploration

ConocoPhillips is currently at a "high level" of exploration activity. Conoco explores globally and in both conventional and unconventional assets. Their number one focus is deepwater Gulf of Mexico. This year they have made a 1 billion+ barrel discovery in the Shenandoah block, where they own a partial interest shared with Anadarko (APC) and some others. I believe similar discoveries will be forthcoming. The frigid Bering Sea is also an area of focus for Conoco. They will begin exploratory drilling there in 2014. Deepwater Angola is another interesting prospect, an area many believe to be an analog to deepwater Brazil, which has yielded numerous huge pre-salt discoveries.

Finally we have Conoco's unconventional exploration inventory. This includes places you might not guess, such as Poland and Columbia. Both the Duvernay and Montney shales in the Yukon Territory have been contested acreage to get ahold of and drill. Conoco has positions there, too. In the lower 48 states, the Permian and Niobrara will be explored extensively next year. Many others, including unconventional juggernaut EOG Resources (EOG), believe the Wolfcamp Shale portion of the Permian Basin will yield great results. Conoco is there.

Funding Gap

Because they have been spending large amounts of capital on developments to reposition the company, and at the same time selling assets already on-line, Conoco's capital expenditures have exceeded Operating Cash Flow. This means the company has a funding gap this year. This graphic explains things. In blue on the left is capital expenditures, which should total $16.6 billion. On the right in blue is Operating Cash Flow. Assuming ! operating! cash flow ends up the same as 2012 (it is shaping up to be a little more), the funding gap can only be covered by asset sales of $9.5 billion (in green on the right). Those assets have already been sold. The company also has $4 billion in short-term cash (in yellow). Management expects their turnaround will add $6 billion to cash flow, ultimately close that funding gap and thereby begin generate Free Cash Flow.

Dividend Growth

YCharts

As a result of their operational results, Conoco has recently raised its already industry-leading dividend from 66 cents to 69, another 4.4%. This is in spite of the funding gap. Conventionally, I would have liked for them to wait until the company has Free Cash Flow before adding to the dividend, but I'm OK with this move. Here's why: Even with the dividend per share hike, share buybacks continue to reduce share count and cancel out the additional cash flow needed for dividend increases. In addition, Conoco has exceeded expectations for the quarter, and this "turnaround" is getting toward its later innings. Maybe it is indeed time for a dividend hike.

Has The Ship Already Sailed?

(click to enlarge)

Shareholders who have been long Conoco since the 2012 spinoff and before have benefited the most. Conoco shares are no doubt up a lot recently. But I don't think it's over. Conoco's 4.13% dividend still leads its peers by a good bit. Conoco is a buy until the yield hits 3.6% or thereabouts. Even then the dividend would be higher than Exxon (XOM) or Chevron (CVX), but we probably need some yield premium to compensate for lower ret! urn on eq! uity and capital versus those other two. My price target, then, is about $76.67. The stock is currently at $66.83. This means an upside of another 14.7%.

Conclusion

ConocoPhillips is becoming a lean, cash-generating machine. By disposing burdensome, low-margin assets, setting up shop in friendlier environments and focusing on growth through capital developments, Conoco has reinvented itself. While the stock is up quite a bit since the spinoff, it does still has a lot of upside. The dividend will pay you to wait until then. Give ConocoPhillips a shot.

Additional Sources:

"ConocoPhillips 2013" Chart by author, data from 2013 Analyst Meeting and Morningstar.

Source: ConocoPhillips: Meeting Commitments And Raising Dividends

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. (More...)

Monday, August 19, 2013

Insider trading: Where is the system lacking?

Let us first understand what exactly is insider trading. Insider trading is the trading of equity shares or other securities such as bonds or stock options by individuals with potential access to non-public information about the company. And insider trading is not limited to insiders only. This is very much conducted by the outsiders and that too, in more organized way. These outsiders glean non-public and price sensitive information with the help of insiders and trade on the same.

All this is very well known. Then, where is the system lacking to curb this illegal trading? It is not like India does not have regulation. Enforcement of prohibitions on insider trading has introduced long back in 1992 in India. The problem lies in proper prosecution. According to SEBI's annual report for 2010-11, the equity market regulator took up investigations in 28 insider trading cases and completed 15 during the year. In the case of insider trading, it is difficult to prosecute the guilty because the India regulator has not given enough teeth. Unlike USA, here Indian regulator does not have access to call records among other things. They cannot do wiretapping which is very crucial to make a case against guilty. Had Mr Rajat Gupta committed the crime of insider trading in India, he may have gone scot-free. In the US, prosecutors used details of telephone conversations and emails to convince jurors that Gupta had leaked boardroom secrets to his former friend, hedge fund manager Mr Raj Rajaratnam.

There are many steps that needs to be taken to curb insider trading. First, law need to recognize insider trading as a criminal activity. Civil prosecution only leads to monetary penalties. Again here, Mr Rajat Gupta could have escaped of 25 years jail sentence even after proper prosecution. Hence, right policies with strong prosecution system are need of the hour. This would create deterrent for all involved in insider trading. On the part of company's management , they should publish all price sensitive data as earliest possible. They should not give preferential access to more data such as analyst's presentation to analysts or other such people before publishing it in public domain.

A concerted effort from policy makers, regulators as well as company's management can only curb insider trading in India. Hope, India would take one lesson or two from the famous case of Mr Rajat Gupta.

Equitymaster.com is India`s leading independent equity research initiative

Saturday, August 17, 2013

Does Amgen Deserve To Be Part Of The Biotech Bull Run?

For as much as the sell-side seems to complain about Amgen (Nasdaq:AMGN), it doesn't seem to have resulted in the company missing out on the run-up in biotech and pharma names over the last 12 to 18 months. With uncertain risk from biosimilars and a pipeline that strikes many investors as lackluster, Amgen isn't the easiest name to like today, and the risk of the company overpaying for Onyx Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq:ONXX) doesn't help. On balance, it's difficult to work up a lot of enthusiasm for Amgen at this price, but key clinical data in early 2014 could add some solid support to the stock.

Amgen Flips The Script On The Drug Sector
Many large drug companies, including Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) and Merck (NYSE:MRK), are reporting very weak top-line growth supplemented with better margins. Amgen pulled the reverse this quarter.

SEE: Better Margins Can't Hide Merck's Growth Challenges or Pfizer Looking A Little Tired

Revenue rose 5%, exceeding the average estimate by about 4%, with 9% product growth. Growth continues to be led by key contributors Neulasta/Neopogen (up 7%) and Enbrel (up 9%), while the newer Xgeva and Prolia were up 46% combined. Aranesp and Epogen both contracted this quarter (2% and 4%, respectively).

Gross margin was basically flat for Amgen this quarter, while operating income declined 2% and the company saw a nearly two and a half point decline in operating margin. While that may not sound so good, it was sufficient for a meaningful bottom-line beat relative to expectations.

Biosimilars Still Drive The Fear
For companies with major biologics franchises (which includes Amgen, AbbVie (Nasdaq:ABBV), and Roche (Nasdaq:RHHBY)), fear of biosimilars (generic biologic compounds) dominates the bear story. In the case of Amgen particularly, Teva (Nasdaq:TEVA) is reportedly close to launching a biosimilar version of Neulasta – a move that threatens about one-quarter of the company's product revenue at this quarter's run-rate.

I'm still taking a "we'll see" attitude about biosimilars. While Teva certainly has the wherewithal from both a manufacturing and marketing aspect to be a player in biosimilars, due diligence is increasingly suggesting that clinicians are viewing these potential drugs more as new products or product alternatives as opposed to "true" generics. What that suggests to me, then, is that the biosimilars may not get identical labeling indications from the start and that doctors may run their ersatz trials – switching a small number of patients and seeing how they do before making wholesale switches with their patients' medications.

SEE: Evaluating Pharmaceutical Companies

Can Amgen Drive More Enthusiasm For Its Pipeline?
Not only does Amgen carry the Big Pharma burden of losing exclusivity to key drugs, but Amgen likewise carries the burden of a pipeline that doesn't seem to excite many analysts or investors. Late-stage compounds like T-Vec and AMG-386 seem to get little more than a shrug, with current expectations being that these drugs will max out well below the $1 billion blockbuster threshold. Likewise, while the company has a deep pipeline of inflammatory drug candidates through its partnership with AstraZeneca (NYSE: AZN), the most advanced drug (brodalumab) isn't generating much buzz yet.

The one exception is AMG-145, the company's PCSK9 inhibitor for cholesterol. There are likely going to be at least four or five serious competitors in this space (including Sanofi (NYSE: SNY)), but the data from Amgen's drug has been strong, the potential is measured in the multiple billions of dollars, and successful Phase 3 data in the first quarter of 2014 could be a big driver for the stock (though investors should note that success is already expected).

The Bottom Line
Amgen's recent bid for Onyx Pharmaceuticals brings some of Amgen's challenges into focus – namely, that the company is considering shelling out a premium valuation in order to add some near/intermediate-term buzz to the business. While I think Onyx's Kyprolis is a solid drug and that Amgen could likely still see value up to a $140/share bid, it's always a little unsettling when companies like Amgen turn to companies with approved drugs as opposed to earlier-stage pipeline candidates.

There aren't many cheap Big Pharma or biotech stocks left anymore, so Amgen is in relatively good company there. I'm looking for around 2% long-term revenue growth and 3% cash flow growth, and there could be upside should Amgen see less pressure from biosimilars than currently feared, produce data that really sets it apart in the cholesterol market, and/or recharges the pipeline with exciting compounds. Failing that, I just can't get all that excited about the shares today.

Disclosure – At the time of writing, the author owned shares of Roche.

Thursday, August 15, 2013

10 Best Clean Energy Stocks To Own For 2014

As stocks fizzled Friday, June ended as the only month this year -- and the first month since last October -- to see the market fall. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI  ) , which shed 114 points, or 0.8%, today, still posted its best first half to the year since 1999. Home Depot's (NYSE: HD  ) stock was the top performer today, as the blue chip index closed at 14,909. Depressed business activity and consumer sentiment numbers released today were partially responsible for Friday's fall.

Home Depot stock ended the day as the Dow's top performer, adding 1.6%. The home improvement supplies store has seen its stock rise for four consecutive days this week, as interest rates come back down after a brief, rapid spike that was sparked by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's comments last week. Higher interest rates discourage potential homebuyers from taking out mortgages, which wouldn't be good for Home Depot's business.

10 Best Clean Energy Stocks To Own For 2014: Taranis Resources Inc. (TRO.V)

Taranis Resources Inc. engages in the acquisition, exploration, and development of precious and base metal properties in the United States, Canada, and Finland. It primarily explores for gold, silver, copper, cobalt, and nickel properties. Taranis Resources Inc. was incorporated in 2001 and is based in Lakewood, Colorado.

10 Best Clean Energy Stocks To Own For 2014: Andatee China Marine Fuel Services Corporation(AMCF)

Andatee China Marine Fuel Services Corporation, through its subsidiaries, engages in the production, storage, distribution, and wholesale purchase, and sale of blended marine fuel oil for cargo and fishing vessels primarily in Tianjin City, and Liaoning, Shandong, and Zhejiang Provinces in the People?s Republic of China. It sells its products through distributors, as well as to retail customers. The company was founded in 1997 and is based in Dalian, the People?s Republic of China.

Best Stocks To Invest In 2014: ATA Inc.(ATAI)

ATA Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides computer-based testing services in the People?s Republic of China. It offers services for the creation and delivery of computer-based tests utilizing its test delivery platform, proprietary testing technologies, and testing services; and provides logistical support services relating to test administration. The company?s computer-based testing services are used for professional licensure and certification tests in various industries, including information technology (IT) services, banking, securities, teaching, and insurance. Its e-testing platform integrates various aspects of the test delivery process for computer-based tests ranging from test form compilation to test scoring, and results analysis. ATA also provides career-oriented educational services, such as single course programs, degree major course programs, and pre-occupational training programs focusing on preparing students to pass IT and other vocational certification tests; test preparation and training programs and services to test candidates preparing to take professional certification tests in securities, futures, banking, insurance and teaching industries; online test preparation and training platform for the securities and banking industries; and test preparation software for the teaching industry. In addition, the company offers HR select employee assessment solution, an online system that utilizes its proprietary software and an inventory of test titles to help employers improve the efficiency and accuracy of their employee recruitment process. As of March 31, 2010, it had contractual relationships with 1,988 ATA authorized test centers. The company serves Chinese governmental agencies, professional associations, IT vendors, and Chinese educational institutions, as well as individual test preparation services. ATA Inc. was founded in 1999 and is based in Beijing, the People?s Republic of China.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Wyatt Research Staff]

    The Chinese-based educator spiked higher recently after it exceeded analysts' expectations. Revenue and adjusted earnings soared 78% and 269%, respectively. Its long-term annual growth rate is 15%.

    Analysts at Zacks Investment Research upgraded shares from "neutral" to "outperform". 

10 Best Clean Energy Stocks To Own For 2014: VIST Financial Corp(VIST)

VIST Financial Corp. operates as the holding company for VIST Bank that provides commercial and consumer banking products and services. The company accepts various deposits that include money market accounts, club accounts, NOW accounts, and traditional regular savings accounts; time, demand, and savings accounts; and certificates of deposit, individual retirement accounts, and Roth individual retirement accounts. Its loan portfolio comprises commercial real estate, industrial, and agricultural loans; real estate construction loans; residential real estate loans; consumer loans; equipment lease and accounts receivable financing; construction and mortgage loans, including home equity loans; and small business loans and other services, including rents for safe deposit facilities. The company also provides mortgage banking services; a line of personal and commercial property and casualty insurance; group insurance for businesses, employee, and group benefit plans; life insura nce; and investment advisory and brokerage services, such as individual financial planning, retirement and estate planning, investments, corporate and small business pension, and retirement planning, as well as health savings accounts. It operates 22 full service and 2 limited service financial centers in various places in Pennsylvania. The company was formerly known as Leesport Financial Corp. and changed its name to VIST Financial Corp. in March 2008. The company was founded in 1909 and is headquartered in Wyomissing, Pennsylvania.

10 Best Clean Energy Stocks To Own For 2014: Ggl Diamond Corp. (GGL.V)

GGL Resources Corp. operates as a mineral exploration company. The company holds mineral claims and leases prospective for gold, silver, nickel, base metals, and diamonds in the Northwest Territories of Canada. The company owns approximately 380,000 acres of claims in the providence greenstone belt; and the McConnell Creek porphyry copper and gold property covering approximately 4,800 hectares located in the Quesnel Trough in north-central British Columbia. It also owns interests in the Doyle Lake project; the CH project claims consisting of approximately 140,000 acres; and Fishback property located in Northwest Territories. The company was formerly known as GGL Diamond Corp. and changed its name to GGL Resources Corp. in September 2009 to better represent its assets. GGL Resources Corp. was founded in 1981 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.

10 Best Clean Energy Stocks To Own For 2014: Presstek Inc.(PRST)

Presstek, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the design, manufacture, and marketing of digital-based offset printing solutions to commercial and in-plant segments of the printing industry. The company provides digital offset presses and printing plates, computer-to-plate (CTP) systems, workflow solutions, chemistry-free printing plates, no preheat thermal CTP plates, and a line of prepress and press room consumables, as well as distributes third-party products. Its digital offset presses include Presstek 75DI Press, a 6-up or B2 format direct-to-press machine; Presstek 52DI Press, a landscape format 52cm direct-to-press machine; Presstek 52DI-AC Press, a landscape format 52cm direct-to-press machine with an in-line aqueous coater; and Presstek 34DI Press, a portrait format 34cm direct-to-press machine. The company?s printing plates comprise ProFire Digital Media, which is designed to work as a system with the laser imaging and press components of ProFire and ProFire Excel enabled DI presses; PearlDry Plus that is designed to work in conjunction with previous generation DI presses; and PearlDry, which is used for direct-to-press applications that require an aluminum-backed plate. Its CTP products consist of Compass 4000, Compass 8000, Dimension Pro, Dimension Excel, Vector FL52, DPM Pro 400, and Digital PlateMaster series plate setters; and CTP plates include Anthem Pro, Freedom Pro, Aurora Pro, and Aeon brand CTP thermal plates. The company?s workflow products comprise Latitude, an automated prepress workflow solution powered by EskoArtwork Odystar; Momentum RIP, which is designed to drive Presstek?s CTP and DI systems, as well as ABDick branded CTP systems; and Momentum Pro, an integrated workflow and RIP. It markets its products through direct sales force, independent graphic arts dealers, and strategic OEM partners worldwide. Presstek, Inc. was founded in 1987 and is headquartered in Greenwich, Connecticut.

10 Best Clean Energy Stocks To Own For 2014: Elite Ksb Holdings Limited(550.SI)

Elite KSB Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in importing, processing, and distributing chicken, pork, and other meat products primarily in Singapore. It provides a range of chicken, pork, beef, and lamb products. The company offers a range of fresh chicken products, such as fresh dressed chicken, fresh chicken parts, and marinated chicken; and chilled beef, including striploin, sirloin, and ribeye. It also manufactures and supplies various small goods, including sausages, hams, and other gourmet specialties. The company sells its products under the First Choice, Pasar, Chef, Ayam21, Top Fresh, and PERGAS brand names. In addition, it provides third-party slaughtering services to chicken distributors; invests in investment properties; involves in the feedmill business activities; and operates as a food processing specialist. The company offers its products to the supermarkets, hotels, restaurants, chicken rice stalls, food service providers, and wet ma rket stalls. Elite KSB Holdings Limited was incorporated in 2001 and is based in Singapore.

10 Best Clean Energy Stocks To Own For 2014: Hologic Inc.(HOLX)

Hologic Inc. develops, manufactures, and supplies diagnostic, medical imaging systems, and surgical products for the healthcare needs of women. The company operates in four segments: Breast Health, Diagnostics, GYN Surgical, and Skeletal Health. The Breast Health segment offers breast imaging products, such as Selenia full field digital mammography system, breast tomosynthesis, healthcome mammography products, screen-film mammography systems, SecurView workstation, CAD systems, stereotactic breast biopsy systems, breast biopsy products, breast brachytherapy products, MammoPad breast cushions, and photoconductor coatings, as well as Sentinelle medical MRI breast coils and workstations. This segment also develops a breast imaging platform, Dimensions, which utilizes a tomosynthesis technology to produce 3D images. The Diagnostics segment provides ThinPrep system, a solution for cervical cancer screening; rapid fetal fibronectin test for pre-term birth risk assessment; and hu man papillomavirus offering and InVitro diagnostics for cervical cancer tests. The GYN Surgical segment offers NovaSure system, a minimally-invasive procedure that allows physicians to treat women suffering from excessive menstrual bleeding; MyoSure system for the hysteroscopic removal of fibroids; and Adiana system, a form of permanent female contraception intended as an alternative to tubal ligation. The Skeletal Health segment provides QDR X-Ray bone densitometers that assess the bone density of fracture sites; Sahara clinical bone sonometers, which assess the bone density of heels; and Mini C-Arm imaging systems that are used to perform minimally invasive surgical procedures on a patient?s extremities. Hologic Inc. sells its products through a combination of direct sales and service forces, a network of independent distributors, and sales representatives primarily in the United States, Europe, and the Asia-Pacific. The company was founded in 1985 and is headquartered in Bedford, Massachusetts.

10 Best Clean Energy Stocks To Own For 2014: Stewardship Financial Corp(SSFN)

Stewardship Financial Corporation operates as the holding company for Atlantic Stewardship Bank that provides commercial and retail banking services to small and medium sized businesses and individuals in Bergen, Morris, and Passaic counties, New Jersey. It offers various deposit products, including personal and business checking accounts, time deposits, money market accounts, regular savings accounts, and term certificate accounts. The company also provides various loan products, such as commercial, consumer, residential mortgage, home equity, installment, and personal loans. In addition, Stewardship Financial Corporation owns and manages a property at Midland Park, New Jersey; involves in insurance business, as well as in issuing trust preferred securities; and owns and manages an investment portfolio. As of December 31, 2009, it operated a main office in Midland Park, New Jersey; and 12 branch offices in Hawthorne, Ridgewood, Montville, North Haledon, Pequannock, Waldwi ck, Wayne, Westwood, and Wyckoff, New Jersey. The company was founded in 1984 and is based in Midland Park, New Jersey.

10 Best Clean Energy Stocks To Own For 2014: Redstar Gold Corp (RGC.V)

Redstar Gold Corp., a junior exploration company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, and development of gold mineral properties the United States and Canada. The company has interests in Newman Todd property in Red Lake, Ontario; Eagle Basin, Painted Hills, Richmond Summit, Root Spring, Cooks Creek, Oasis, Baker, Seven Devils, Queens, Opal Hill, Larus, Long Island, Black Hawk, and Gold Cloud properties in Nevada; and Shumagin and Unga-Popof properties in Alaska. Redstar Gold Corp. is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.

Wednesday, August 14, 2013

5 Ways To Increase Your Chances Of Getting A Job After College

There's a disturbing trend in America and it's causing soon to be high school graduates to question whether college truly is the key to finding success in a difficult job market. A recent report by the Associated Press found that one out of every two college graduates is either unemployed or underemployed, often working in a field that isn't related to their degree. This, along with the student loan debt topping $1 trillion, is causing graduates to find themselves with low-paying jobs that make them no better off than if they hadn't gone to college at all.

According to economists, college is still the best way to land the higher-paying jobs, but no longer is the act of attending college the key to success. Making the wrong decisions before entering college can hurt your chances of putting your degree to work later on.

Have a Plan
It used to be OK to head to college now and figure out a degree later. According to MyMajor.com, 80% of students entering college hadn't picked a major and 50% will change their major while in college. With rising college tuition and students spending more time in college, they are amassing more debt which translates into higher payments upon graduation. Harvard economist Richard Freeman advises students who are undecided about their future plans to find a job after high school until they decide what they want to study instead of heading to college without a clear plan.

Don't Follow Your Passion
Mark Cuban, entrepreneur and star of the hit television series Shark Tank, advises people not to follow their passion. According to Cuban, we have a lot of passions in our life, but most won't translate into successful careers. Instead, he advises to follow our effort. Look at how you spend your time. Whatever you spend the most time doing may be your perfect career. When we spend time with something, we gain a lot of skill which makes us an expert in that field and being an expert translates to career success.

Create a Barrier
Pursuing a profession that requires a specialized degree creates a barrier to entry. Fields like medicine, education, law and accounting require that you have a degree in order to gain the certification needed to apply for those jobs. Other careers, like the arts, many business jobs and sports management, have collegiate degree programs, but they aren't required to work in the field making the amount of eligible people much higher.

Check BLS
The Bureau of Labor Statistics' website has detailed information about most career paths including average salary and the amount of people needed in those careers in the future. If you're considering more than one degree path, choose one that will have a large need for workers in the future. Fields that have a saturated market not only make it harder to find a job, but the salary may also go down due to the oversupply of workers willing to work for less.

Reduce Your Debt
There are plenty of ways to reduce college debt. Go to a state college if appropriate for your field. You can live at home instead of paying the high price of campus housing, purchase used books, work a part time job if your degree program allows or take summer classes to reduce the amount of time you're in school.

The Bottom Line
Although the college years are still full of fun and great memories for many, making the most of your college education is essential to having the best chances of finding the job you dreamed of having. Remember, the sooner you get out of college, the sooner you will earn money instead of building up more debt.

Friday, August 9, 2013

Top 5 Undervalued Stocks To Invest In Right Now

LONDON --�As a general rule, I prefer investing in companies whose share price has fallen rather than risen, because there's a better chance of bagging a bargain.

That strategy isn't foolproof. Two years ago, I chose struggling insurer�Aviva�over high-flying�Legal & General� (LSE: LGEN  ) �and got it badly wrong. Aviva has continue to flounder, Legal & General has soared. It is up 62% over the past 12 months alone. But can it continue this surge?

I've seen at least two brokers claiming Legal & General remains undervalued, suggesting further fun is on the way. Legal & General is rightly feeling chipper having just posted "record assets, sales and cash generation" during the first quarter. New business sales shot up an impressive 28% to 555 million pounds, with its U.K. and U.S. businesses both performing strongly, while total assets under management grew 9% to to 441 billion pounds. Annuity premiums also grew strongly, as did group protection sales, which rose a mighty 67% in what is a notoriously sluggish market.

Top 5 Undervalued Stocks To Invest In Right Now: Schlumberger N.V.(SLB)

Schlumberger Limited, together with its subsidiaries, supplies technology, integrated project management, and information solutions to the oil and gas exploration and production industries worldwide. The company?s Oilfield Services segment provides exploration and production services; wireline technology that offers open-hole and cased-hole services; supplies engineering support, directional-drilling, measurement-while-drilling, and logging-while-drilling services; and testing services. This segment also offers well services; supplies well completion services and equipment; artificial lift; data and consulting services; geo services; and information solutions, such as consulting, software, information management system, and IT infrastructure services that support oil and gas industry. Its WesternGeco segment provides reservoir imaging, monitoring, and development services; and operates data processing centers and multiclient seismic library. This segment also offers variou s services include 3D and time-lapse (4D) seismic surveys to multi-component surveys for delineating prospects and reservoir management. The company?s M-I SWACO segment supplies drilling fluid systems to improve drilling performance; fluid systems and specialty tools to optimize wellbore productivity; production technology solutions to maximize production rates; and environmental solutions that manages waste volumes generated in drilling and production operations. Its Smith Oilfield segment designs, manufactures, and markets drill bits and borehole enlargement tools; and supplies drilling tools and services, tubular, completion services, and other related downhole solutions. The company?s Distribution segment markets pipes, valves, and fittings, as well as mill, safety, and other maintenance products. This segment also provides warehouse management, vendor integration, and inventory management services. Schlumberger Limited was founded in 1927 and is based in Houston, Texas.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Rebecca Lipman]

     Together with its subsidiaries, supplies technology, integrated project management, and information solutions to the oil and gas exploration and production industries worldwide. Market cap of $91.49B. EPS growth (5-year CAGR) at 24%. According to Morgan Stanley: "Thanks to an estimated $1 billion investment per year in R&D, Schlumberger has what we consider the most advanced technology portfolio in the industry."

  • [By Kathy Kristof]

    Headquarters: Houston

    52-Week High: $79.38

    52-Week Low: $56.86 

    Annual Sales: $39.5 bill.

    Projected Earnings Growth: 18% annually over the next five years 


    Energy-services giant Schlumberger is the prototypical multinational. The company derives roughly 85% of its revenues from overseas, including developing markets in Africa, Brazil and Asia. 

    With particular expertise in deep-water drilling, Schlumberger is well-positioned to compete in a world where oil is harder to find, says Argus Research analyst Philip Weiss. Admittedly, oil exploration is a cyclical business, driven largely by crude prices. And weak prices for natural gas have hit the company’s stock, Weiss says. But the price of natural gas has little to do with Schlumberger’s profits, so Weiss just sees this as an opportunity to get the shares at a more reasonable price.

  • [By Brian Stoffel]

    This company has been a pick of both Jordan DiPietro and Bryan White. And both analysts have pointed to the company's opportunity for oil exploration abroad -- which is where much of the demand will soon be coming from as well.

    Bryan points out that three-fourths of the company's revenue comes from abroad, with "Brazil, the Middle East, and Africa [as] key regions where activity is expected to be robust and growing."

    Jordan adds, "[Schlumberger] has an important presence in high-growth regions of the world such as Iraq, Mexico, and Russia, and has the competitive advantage to be able to offer full services, from managing entire oil fields to drilling wells."

Top 5 Undervalued Stocks To Invest In Right Now: Dollar Tree Inc.(DLTR)

Dollar Tree, Inc. operates discount variety stores in the United States and Canada. Its stores offer merchandise primarily at the fixed price of $1.00. The company operates its stores under the names of Dollar Tree, Deal$, Dollar Tree Deal$, Dollar Giant, and Dollar Bills. Its stores offer consumable merchandise, including candy and food, and health and beauty care, as well as household consumables, such as paper, plastics, household chemicals, in select stores, and frozen and refrigerated food; variety merchandise, which includes toys, durable housewares, gifts, party goods, greeting cards, softlines, and other items; and seasonal goods, such as Easter, Halloween, and Christmas merchandise. As of April 30, 2011, it operated 4,089 stores in 48 states and the District of Columbia, as well as 88 stores in Canada. The company was founded in 1986 and is based in Chesapeake, Virginia.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Sam Collins]

    Dollar Tree (NASDAQ:DLTR) is a leading operator of discount variety stores. The stock has hugged its 50-day moving average since mid-February. But a recent minor revision of earnings for this year by several analysts and the recent market sell-off have resulted in a fall from its high of the year at over $70 to under $66. However, Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) increased its price target to $73 from $69.

    Technically DLTR is oversold, according to MACD. A break below its 50-day moving average could result in a pullback to $64, but positions could be taken at the current market price. The trading target for DLTR is $72.

Top 5 Blue Chip Stocks To Invest In Right Now: Caterpillar Inc.(CAT)

Caterpillar Inc. manufactures and sells construction and mining equipment, diesel and natural gas engines, industrial gas turbines, and diesel-electric locomotives worldwide. It operates through three lines of businesses: Machinery, Engines, and Financial Products. The Machinery business offers construction, mining, and forestry machinery, including track and wheel tractors, track and wheel loaders, pipelayers, motor graders, wheel tractor-scrapers, track and wheel excavators, backhoe loaders, log skidders, log loaders, off-highway trucks, articulated trucks, paving products, skid steer loaders, underground mining equipment, tunnel boring equipment, and related parts. It also manufactures diesel-electric locomotives; and manufactures and services rail-related products and logistics services for other companies. The Engines business provides diesel, heavy fuel, and natural gas reciprocating engines for Caterpillar machinery, electric power generation systems, marine, petrol eum, construction, industrial, agricultural, and other applications. It offers industrial turbines and turbine-related services for oil and gas, and power generation applications. This business also remanufactures Caterpillar engines, machines, and engine components; and offers remanufacturing services for other companies. The Financial Products business provides retail and wholesale financing alternatives for Caterpillar machinery and engines, solar gas turbines, and other equipment and marine vessels, as well as offers loans and various forms of insurance to customers and dealers. It also offers financing for vehicles, power generation facilities, and marine vessels. The company markets its products directly, as well as through its distribution centers, dealers, and distributors. It was formerly known as Caterpillar Tractor Co. and changed its name to Caterpillar Inc. in 1986. Caterpillar Inc. was founded in 1925 and is headquartered in Peoria, Illinois.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Roberto Pedone]

    Caterpillar (CAT) is staging a textbook breakout in May. Shares of heavy equipment maker haven't exactly been kind to investors year-to-date; CAT has barely broken even during a time when the broad market has been in a historic rally. But a textbook breakout should change that.

    CAT started forming an inverse head and shoulders pattern back in early April. The inverse head and shoulders is formed by two swing lows that bottom out around the same level (the shoulders), separated by a lower low called the head; the buy signal comes on the breakout above the pattern's "neckline" level, which was just below $86 for CAT. That puts this stock's upside target right around $92.

    Even though CAT has nearly hit its upside target already (the post-breakout buying has been very quick), the longer-term implication for investors is a break of the downtrend that had been haranguing shares this year. Now, with that downtrend broken, CAT should have more room to move higher. I'd just expect some consolidation first.

  • [By Jim Cramer,TheStreet]

    Caterpillar (CAT) could be a monster in 2011, especially with the integration of Bucyrus International (BUCY), which I think will turn out to be a fantastic acquisition.

    Current earnings-per-share estimates of about $6 are, I think, way too low. I see this stock going to $120 in the next year. Too gutsy? Ask yourself what happens if the United States comes back as a growth nation? Right now almost all of the growth is overseas.

    Still a fantastic mineral play and a terrific call on world growth.

Top 5 Undervalued Stocks To Invest In Right Now: Tupperware Corporation(TUP)

Tupperware Brands Corporation operates as a direct seller of various products across a range of brands and categories through an independent sales force. The company engages in the manufacture and sale of kitchen and home products, and beauty and personal care products. It offers preparation, storage, and serving solutions for the kitchen and home, as well as kitchen cookware and tools, children?s educational toys, microwave products, and gifts under the Tupperware brand name primarily in Europe, Africa, the Middle East, the Asia Pacific, and North America. The company provides beauty and personal care products, which include skin care products, cosmetics, bath and body care, toiletries, fragrances, nutritional products, apparel, and related products principally in Mexico, South Africa, the Philippines, Australia, and Uruguay. It offers beauty and personal care products under the Armand Dupree, Avroy Shlain, BeautiControl, Fuller, NaturCare, Nutrimetics, Nuvo, and Swissgar de brand names. The company sells its Tupperware products directly to distributors, directors, managers, and dealers; and beauty products primarily through consultants and directors. As of December 26, 2009, the Tupperware distribution system had approximately 1,800 distributors, 61,300 managers, and 1.3 million dealers; and the sales force representing the Beauty businesses approximately 1.1 million. The company was formerly known as Tupperware Corporation and changed its name to Tupperware Brands Corporation in December 2005. The company was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Orlando, Florida.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Sam Collins]

    Household name Tupperware Brands Corp. (NYSE:TUP) is a global direct seller of products with multiple brands through an independent sales force of 2.4 million people. Its product line focuses on kitchen storage and serving solutions, as well as personal-care products. Over 60% of sales in 2011 are expected to come from Europe and Asia, and the stock has appeal as an emerging markets story.

    S&P estimates that 2011 earnings will increase to $4.54 versus $3.53 in 2010, and it increased its rating to a “five-star strong buy” with a recently revised 12-month target of $81, up from $73. The 2005 purchase of Sara Lee’s (NYSE:SLE) direct-sales business, which has a high growth rate, should be a long-term benefit. TUP’s annual dividend yield is 1.92%.

    Technically TUP had a pullback following a new high at over $70 and is currently oversold. Buy TUP at the current market price with a trading target of $70, but longer term a much higher target will likely be attained.